Iran was accused of firing on an unmanned US air force Predator surveillance drone by the US military. Photograph: Julianne Showalter/AFP/Getty Images
A mid-air incident in which Iranian warplanes opened fire on a US surveillance drone high over the Persian Gulf has brought home how nuclear tensions and increased military hardware in a confined area can lead to a clash that could escalate out of control.
Western officials are concerned that minority elements on both sides of the confrontation in the region have a vested interest in triggering such a clash. Some Israeli leaders would like to see Washington drawn in so that superior US forces could strike a crippling blow to Iranian nuclear facilities, while a "war party" in Tehran sees a conflict as a means of rallying support for the regime and cracking down yet further on dissent, officials say.
They believe the risk of a "spoiler" incident will rise if a new diplomatic push aimed at reaching a peaceful settlement of the Iranian nuclear crisis appears to show progress.
The Pentagon said that on 1 November two Sukhoi 25 jet fighters flown by Iranian Revolutionary Guards, fired at the Predator drone carrying out a routine but "classified surveillance mission", 16 miles off the Iranian shore – four miles outside its territorial waters.
Late last year the Iranians displayed a US surveillance drone they said they had brought down by hijacking its electronic controls, but last week's incident marked the first time Iranian jets had fired on a US aircraft.
Iran's defence minister, Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi, claimed that an unidentified aircraft had entered Iranian airspace, but had been "forced to flee due to the prompt, smart and decisive action of Iran's armed forces". He did not make clear whether the Revolutionary Guard jets had meant to hit the drone or merely fire warning shots.
US military officials say the Revolutionary Guards are generally far more assertive than Iran's regular forces, both in the air and on water. US naval officers describe their Iranian counterparts as professional and courteous when communicating in the crowded waters of the strait of Hormuz – the gateway to the Gulf – but that the small, fast craft run by the Guards regularly test American reflexes by approaching close to US warships.
The Guards' covert external wing, the Quds force, has also taken on US troops in Iraq, and is believed to be the most aggressive element in the Tehran regime. The force was implicated in a foiled plot to kill the Saudi ambassador to Washington in a bomb attack on a restaurant in the US capital last year.
"It's clear that there are fanatics in Tehran who would welcome a conflict because it would entrench their power," said a western official. "There are people in Tehran who desperately wanted Romney to win [the US election]."
The official said that if the new diplomatic push for a negotiated settlement of the impasse over Iran's nuclear programme, – due to begin at the end of this month with a new round of talks involving six world powers and Tehran – shows signs of progress, the risk of a "spoiler" incident, aimed at torpedoing that effort, would increase.
The official said the most likely explanation for the Washington restaurant bomb plot, which took western intelligence agencies by surprise in both its boldness and incompetence, was that it was designed by the Guards' Quds force to fail – thus sabotaging nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran. European sources confirm that the supreme leader's foreign affairs advisor, Ali Akbar Velayati, took part in secret back-channel contacts with the US, but those contacts have yet to yield any solid progress.
Last month, an Iranian-American used car dealer, Mansour Arbabsiar, pleaded guilty to trying to hire assassins from a Mexican drug cartel to kill the Saudi ambassador in Washington, Adel al-Jubeir, in his favourite Georgetown restaurant. His guilty plea referred to "officials in the Iranian military" as his co-conspirators. The US attorney-general, Eric Holder, said the plot had been "directed and approved by elements of the Iranian government and, specifically, senior members of the Quds force". Gholam Shakuri, another man charged over his alleged involvement in the plot but who is on the run, is described as a Quds force member.
US intelligence agencies have found it hard to square the amateur nature of the plot – Arbabsiar, whose defence team claims is bipolar, was less than discreet in his attempts to hire Mexican hitmen – with hard evidence of money transfers and contacts from known Quds force members, and the unit's reputation for ruthless efficiency.
Trita Parsi, the head of the National Iranian-American Council, said: "There is a risk that there are some elements who do believe that war is inevitable, but their view is that Iran will ultimately benefit. They say two wars in the region have crippled America as a superpower and turned it into a hobbling giant, and that Iran would bounce back from defeat.
"The Iranians I talk to make it clear that this is a small minority, but it is at the table whereas before it was not."
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