Now that Miley Cyrus and her foam finger have had their day, we can return our attention to the more tasteful grind of Canadian politics. With the onset of Fall, Ottawa becomes more serious. The politicians now have their eyes fixed on the next election.
There has been speculation, founded on very little, that Mr. Harper might not run in 2015. But I cannot imagine why he would choose to sit out. The drama of a contest with a younger opponent, a new Liberal champion who also is the son of a modern Liberal hero, seems a temptation too good not to embrace.
Stephen Harper is very competitive. He keeps his counsel on most matters, and communicates little that is personal. But it is unquestionable that he experiences something like glee when it comes to political combat. He loves beating Liberals, especially. He has already dispatched a couple of their leaders. In particular, I'd guess he really enjoyed the cruel trouncing he gave to Michael Ignatieff — brought back from Harvard's halls expressly to humble him.
Mr. Trudeau is insistently likeable; Mr. Harper withdrawn and dour. The PM thinks before he acts. The Liberal leader rides the wave. Though the years separating them are not great, they are representatives of different generations, different mentalities. Both are blessed with a deep confidence, though Mr. Harper may own an edge here. His confidence comes after much struggle and competition, while Mr. Trudeau always has had the comforts of name and fame.
Mr. Trudeau's first leap into the political spotlight was the rather farcical boxing match with the outclasssed Senator Patrick Brazeau. It was novel and daring and extremely public. Very Justin Trudeau. We'd have to enter some alternative universe to see Stephen Harper put on boxing trunks after "trash-talking" his opponent on Twitter.
Mr. Trudeau, however, is very much of this new age. He inhabits the world of publicity, iPhones and social media. The spotlight loves him and he returns the favour. Crowds gather when he shows up; they cheer him and he cheers them.
The Prime Minister is the reverse of this. If anything, Mr. Harper — ironically — bears some resemblance to Pierre Trudeau.
The first Trudeau, though he stirred great publicity, was far more private than his son. He had a disdain for the press, which Mr. Harper shares. The PM also is a very private man. He has reserved to himself and his family a zone of removal from the clamorous demands of politics. He will never, beyond some awkward moments playing a Beatles tune on the piano, do "show and tell" with the electorate.
Stephen Harper wants to win because he really likes winning. Justin Trudeau wants to win because he thinks he should, that the script has been written and it's just for him to follow its prompts.
There is, of course, one other character in all of this: Thomas Mulcair. He is in the difficult position, even though he leads the official opposition, of not being an equally dramatic agent in this play of power and personality. He will have to create an independent storyline, some means of claiming a part of the stage for himself and his NDP. It will be immensely difficult for him to do so.
For most of the energy in Canadian politics right now is in the Harper-Trudeau collision. The next election will be built on the clash of character and personality between these two, and the nearly exquisite symmetry the contest provides. It's Ottawa's version of a cage fight, and the next round is set to begin this Fall.
National Post
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